Expansionary Fiscal Contractions: Re–evaluating the Danish Case
نویسندگان
چکیده
The Expansionary Fiscal Contraction (EFC) hypothesis predicts that a major fiscal consolidation leads to an economic expansion under certain circumstances. We test this hypothesis, and the implied non–linear responses of the economy to large and small changes in fiscal policy, using data from the 1983 Danish fiscal reform. We use a structural VAR/event study methodology following Blanchard and Perotti (2002) that explicitly allows us to distinguish between normally marginal changes in fiscal policy and comprehensive fiscal reforms. We find that “marginal changes” in fiscal policy (expenditure and tax changes) have the expected Keynesian effects on output and consumption. However, we find no evidence that the large fiscal consolidation in Denmark slowed the economy after controlling for a host of exogenous shocks and business cycle effects: Rather, we find some support for the hypothesis that the exogenous fiscal contraction in Denmark was a credible regime shift and, together with other reforms undertaken at the time, increased both private consumption and aggregate output.
منابع مشابه
Expansionary Fiscal Contractions? Evidence from Panel Data
We examine the ability of the Expansionary Fiscal Contraction (EFC) hypothesis to explain the performance of of OECD economies during times of crisis. We ̄nd some limited evidence in its favour: if public consumption is reduced in response to a ̄scal crisis (as de ̄ned by a high level of debt), private consumption does seem to increase. However the size of the e®ect is smaller than that typicall...
متن کاملTrade-offs of Fiscal Austerity in the European Debt Crisis: The Case of Slovenia
In this paper, we investigate the trade-off between the needs for budget consolidation and the desirability of expansionary fiscal policies as a means of demand management by simulating alternative scenarios with a macroeconometric model of the Slovenian economy. The simulations show that for the Slovenian economy an expansionary fiscal policy is neither feasible nor desirable: it leads to unsu...
متن کاملKeynesian, Non-keynesian or No Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes? the Emu Case
This paper studies the experiences with fiscal adjustments in the European Union (EU) countries during the transition period to the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Using several approaches suggested in the literature on fiscal adjustments and their macroeconomic effects and in the literature on EMU, we analyze the effects of the fiscal adjustments during this period on private consumption. T...
متن کاملMonetary and Fiscal Policies and the Growth Laffer Curve: Panel Data Evidences
The present paper examines the mitigating effect of monetary and fiscal policies on the “Growth Laffer curve” (GLC) using a panel data of 38 high income countries over the period 2003-2012. Adopting generalised method of moments (GMM) estimators, the paper finds evidence substantiating the presence of an inverted-U GLC. Moreover, the evidence suggests that the GLC shifts downward by employing e...
متن کامل